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The new toy from Apple promises a world of application downloads, video and audio streaming, “retrasnmisiones events, books and ‘online’, broadband Internet … Already there are voices of alarm about the possible effects of sudden success of this ‘gadget’ in the networks, some already overburdened.
Intelegent phones with ever more functions being taken over from other devices, like laptops, as the largest consumers of data. The New York Times warns that a new generation of devices and tablets, as the recent iPad or devices with Android, can dramatically increase the burden of this network.
As alguinas extending customs such as consumption of the video ‘streaming from a wireless device (which became fashionable iPhone itself), the situation will worsen. The result: slower networks and even collapsed.
For samples, a button, last year in the U.S., serious problems were detected in high-speed network from AT & T because of the success of the iPhone (its operation is unique, even for a little while longer) and the like, who favor a intensive use by their owners. Some problems, moreover, that show your face ‘kind’ of benefits for the operator: 3.000 billion in the last quarter of 2009, up 25% over the same period last year.
Another remarkable case is that of South Korea and Japan, countries with high penetration of 3G mobile networks where they were in danger of collapse last year because of massive downloads video porn, published in July by Bloomberg. Nipponese operators DoCoMo and KDDI then had to rethink its service unlimited data download.
3G networks will not be able to support much more growth, some experts say
“Network operators are not prepared to absorb the traffic of five million tablets consuming five gigabytes of data per month,” he said by way of example Philip Cusick, an analyst at Macquarie Securities. Benny Einhorn, a well known ‘guru’ Israeli mobile technology expert, agrees with the analysis. “Some 20% of mobile users they will be on high speed networks this year, and from that threshold data consumption will soar dramatically, 3G networks will not be able to support more growth.”
The consumption figures are revealing devices. A mobile phone consumes about 40 megabytes of data at the time to browse the Internet over 3G networks. Devote as much time watching YouTube videos involving expenditure of about 120 megabytes. A live video broadcast, 300 megabytes per hour. In the U.S., AT & T itself has recognized a 7,000% increase in data traffic through the mobile network since 2006. Amid this scene, she breaks the iPad.
In Spain
Meanwhile, major operators in Spain draw chest and boast that the high-speed mobile networks are ready for the growing demand for data, such is the case of Telefonica, where they say is “the European operator, and maybe the world, best mobile network with dimensions. The company claims that its 3.5G or HSDPA network “has coverage of over 85% of the population”, and has begun to deploy in Madrid and Barcelona, his Super Mobile Broadband with speeds of 21 Mbps downstream and 11, 4 Mbps uplink.
Vodafone has since November with a dynamic model of network management called “Quality of Service ‘. Elia Asensio, head designer of Vodafone Spain network, explains that the system “allows the speed is reduced only when network congestion and optimize capacity and customer service offered by times of high load.” The company committed to the HSPA +, with speeds up to 21 Mbps, currently deployed in the seven major Spanish cities.
Dealers say the major networks are prepared for the growing demand for data
John Vizoso Doval, director of definition of services and demand management of the Orange network, says that the operator saw a doubling of data traffic on the 3G network in 2009. “The introduction of flat rates has stimulated much consumption, and our expectations are to continue on the same line by the popularity of all types of devices, enabling access to the Net anywhere,” he says. The company, which continuously monitors the data traffic from the mobile network, said, “is prepared for this deluge of data.”
Remains far from the commercialization of next generation mobile network (4G), as is still negotiating the management of future licenses after several delays. While Vodafone bet avoids specific timelines for deployment, from Orange Vizoso Doval dare make a prediction: “In 2012, field tests may be made on real network and in 2013 we will see commercial products 4G. Meanwhile, the HSDPA ( also called 3.5G) will be able to meet the needs. ” At Telefónica claim that “it is logical to think that LTE or 4G will not be a reality before 2012.”
More and more devices
In any case, the problem may come not only for the quality of infrastructure operators, but also by the dramatic increase in NUMTRA phones and devices connected to the mobile network, with more applications and improvements.
Business volume is growing, as reflected in the latest results of the major manufacturers. Nokia sold in the fourth quarter of 2009 126.9 million handsets, of which 20.8 million were ‘smartphones’ (or smart phones) and ‘netbooks’, compared with 15.1 million the same period last year .
Apple remains in the lead group with a single device, the iPhone (8.7 million units sold in 2009, double the previous year), while Research In Motion sold last year by more than 10 million BlackBerry units, which allowed their income to rise by 59% over last year.
For its part, Motorola, which had been on the brink of extinction after the financial crisis, won $ 142 million in the fourth quarter of 2009. This second consecutive quarterly profit in contrast to the result obtained in the last three months of 2008, when Motorola had lost 3,700 million dollars.
Much of the recovery is due to the launch of ‘smartphones’ Android, direct competition for Apple’s iPhone. “They were very well received,” said co-chairman of the company, Sanjay Jha. Motorola, which has already sold a million units, will deepen this commitment during the year by throwing at least 20 new models of multifunction mobile phones, advanced Jha. Meanwhile, Samsung is maintained with a 3% market share.
That, without the immense popularity of ‘netbooks’, small computers designed to work connected to the network, which closed 2009 with more than 25 million units sold.